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Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts whose value tracks the market’s estimate that a future event will happen.

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What a prediction market is

A prediction market asks a resolved question, such as whether a candidate wins an election or whether a metric lands above a threshold by a deadline. In a binary market, the main outcomes are usually YES and NO. Contract prices are quoted like probabilities:
  • A YES price near 0.62 means the market is roughly pricing a 62% chance of YES.
  • A NO price near 0.38 means the market is roughly pricing the other side.
  • Prices move as traders add information, disagree, or rebalance risk.

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What resolves a market

Every market has resolution criteria: the source, deadline, and exact condition used to decide the outcome. Read those rules before wiring a strategy to a market. Two markets with similar titles can resolve on different sources, dates, or edge-case rules.

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How Blueprints uses prediction markets

Blueprints treats prediction markets as both data sources and execution venues:
  1. Use a Market node to stream live Polymarket or Kalshi prices into a blueprint.
  2. Choose the venue, market, and YES/NO side that matches the thesis.
  3. Add conditions and risk controls before any trading action.
  4. Review the blueprint, then deploy the approved version.
For venue-specific configuration details, see Market node venues and sides.

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Building a first strategy

Start with a small, inspectable thesis:
  1. Pick one market with clear resolution rules.
  2. Decide which price movement or threshold would change your view.
  3. Add a Market node for the relevant side.
  4. Add a condition that represents the signal you care about.
  5. Add risk limits before connecting to an output action.
Keep the first version narrow. A simple blueprint is easier to review, monitor, and stop if the market behaves differently than expected.

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Risk basics

Prediction-market prices can move quickly around news, liquidity can disappear, and resolution wording matters. Treat automated strategies as live trading systems:
  • Size orders conservatively.
  • Prefer explicit stop conditions over open-ended automation.
  • Monitor deployed blueprints and account balances.
  • Recheck market rules after major news or platform updates.