> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.useblueprints.ai/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Prediction markets guide

> A practical primer for using prediction markets in Blueprints.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts whose value tracks the market's estimate that a future event will happen.

## What a prediction market is

A prediction market asks a resolved question, such as whether a candidate wins an election or whether a metric lands above a threshold by a deadline. In a binary market, the main outcomes are usually **YES** and **NO**.

Contract prices are quoted like probabilities:

* A YES price near `0.62` means the market is roughly pricing a 62% chance of YES.
* A NO price near `0.38` means the market is roughly pricing the other side.
* Prices move as traders add information, disagree, or rebalance risk.

## What resolves a market

Every market has resolution criteria: the source, deadline, and exact condition used to decide the outcome. Read those rules before wiring a strategy to a market. Two markets with similar titles can resolve on different sources, dates, or edge-case rules.

## How Blueprints uses prediction markets

Blueprints treats prediction markets as both data sources and execution venues:

1. Use a Market node to stream live Polymarket or Kalshi prices into a blueprint.
2. Choose the venue, market, and YES/NO side that matches the thesis.
3. Add conditions and risk controls before any trading action.
4. Review the blueprint, then deploy the approved version.

For venue-specific configuration details, see [Market node venues and sides](/product/market-node-venues).

## Building a first strategy

Start with a small, inspectable thesis:

1. Pick one market with clear resolution rules.
2. Decide which price movement or threshold would change your view.
3. Add a Market node for the relevant side.
4. Add a condition that represents the signal you care about.
5. Add risk limits before connecting to an output action.

Keep the first version narrow. A simple blueprint is easier to review, monitor, and stop if the market behaves differently than expected.

## Risk basics

Prediction-market prices can move quickly around news, liquidity can disappear, and resolution wording matters. Treat automated strategies as live trading systems:

* Size orders conservatively.
* Prefer explicit stop conditions over open-ended automation.
* Monitor deployed blueprints and account balances.
* Recheck market rules after major news or platform updates.